New Zealand has a migration crisis

New Zealand has a migration crisis on par with Europe. It is just that the mode of arrival of new migrants is via different means. New Zealand has had net-migration gains for the past 3 years with records being broken month after month. In the year to April 2016, New Zealand had a net-migration gain of 68100 people. Germany, which has a population of more than 16 times the size of New Zealand, had a net-migration gain of around 1.1 million in the 2015 year. 68100 times 16 gives around 1.1 million, therefore on a per-capita basis New Zealand is experiencing similar net-migration gains to Germany.

However, unlike Germany which has below replacement fertility levels and more deaths than births resulting in natural population decrease; New Zealand has near replacement fertility and continued natural population increase. This, coupled with very high levels of net-migration, is resulting in New Zealand experiencing population growth of around 2% per annum; comparible to countries such as the Central African Republic and Pakistan.

Societies often struggle to cope with rapid population growth, and societal disfunction of some degree almost always results from such growth. It should therefore be evident that many of the major issues that are currently plaguing New Zealand, such has as severely unaffordable housing, transport, health care and education systems being stretched to their limits and low productivity growth are a consequence of the rapid population growth that is occurring in New Zealand at present.

Clearly it is my opinion that New Zealand is experiencing unsustainable population growth at present and it should be axiomatic that I believe that continued population growth is always unsustainable in the long term. Therefore the two causes are very high net migration coupled with continued natural population growth. Little can be done about the later at present, but this will eventually run its course due to replacement fertility levels. However it is very easy to bring net-migration back into balance, although, there is little political will to do so at present. I could go into why I believe there is little political will to do anything, however, I’d rather just focus on the facts in this blog.

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